What happened
The fall housing market is giving buyers more leverage, but not in a simple “prices are falling everywhere” way. Realtor.com’s September 2026 housing report found that 20.8% of active listings had a price cut, the highest September share since 2018 and the highest monthly share since October 2022. Active listings also rose to about 1.16 million nationally, up 5.4% from a year earlier, while pending activity softened as mortgage rates moved higher during the month [1].
Redfin’s late-September read points in the same direction: just over one in five sellers cut their asking price during the four weeks ending September 20, the highest share for that time of year in Redfin’s records. Redfin also noted that some sellers are responding before the listing goes live by pricing more realistically, while others are choosing to wait or delist rather than accept a deeper discount [2].
At the same time, national sale prices have not rolled over. Redfin’s August Home Price Index showed U.S. home prices up 0.25% from the prior month, even as August was described as the strongest buyer’s market on record, with roughly 58% more sellers than buyers nationally. Redfin’s explanation is important for borrowers: many homeowners still have meaningful equity and no urgent reason to accept a steep discount, while higher-end demand in places including parts of Florida has helped support national price measures [3].
Why Western New York looks different
Buffalo-area buyers should not assume national “buyer’s market” headlines translate directly to Erie and Niagara County bidding conditions. Realtor.com’s Buffalo-Cheektowaga August report showed active listings up 29.8% year over year, which is a meaningful improvement in selection. But Buffalo listings with price cuts were only 11.1%, far below the national comparison of 20.4%, and the median days on market was 40 days versus 60 nationally [4].
The Buffalo Niagara Association of REALTORS® August 2026 report tells the same local story from the closed-sales side. Inventory increased 20.0% year over year to 2,229 homes, and months supply rose 19.0% to 2.5 months. That is more breathing room than last year, but it is still not a loose market by normal standards. BNAR also reported the August median sales price rose 4.2% year over year to $300,000, while sellers received an average of 106.6% of list price [5].
In plain English: Western New York has more inventory, but the best-priced homes are still moving. Buyers may have more listings to compare, more room to negotiate on stale properties, and a better shot at inspection or seller-credit discussions than they had in the tightest months. But homes in popular Buffalo suburbs, move-in-ready price points, and neighborhoods with limited supply can still attract competition.
Mortgage rates are the pressure point
The leverage buyers are gaining is coming with a tradeoff: affordability remains strained. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the prior week and above 6.34% one year earlier [6]. That move matters because even a modest home-price concession can be offset by a higher monthly payment if rates rise while a buyer is shopping.
For borrowers, this is why the conversation should be less about “waiting for a crash” and more about total monthly cost. A seller credit toward closing costs, repairs, or a temporary buydown may be more useful than a small list-price reduction, depending on the loan scenario. However, those options depend on the property, seller willingness, loan program limits, appraisal, and underwriting rules.
What borrowers should watch next
The next key signal is whether price cuts turn into signed contracts. Realtor.com specifically flagged that it will be important to see whether deeper discounts actually bring buyers back or simply leave homes sitting longer [1]. If rates remain elevated, sellers with less urgent timelines may continue to hold firm, especially in tighter markets like Buffalo. If more inventory keeps building into the off-season, buyers may see more selective negotiating opportunities.
For Western New York buyers, the practical approach is to separate “fresh, well-priced” listings from “overpriced and lingering” listings. The first group may still require a fast, clean offer. The second group may allow more conversation around price, repairs, closing-cost credits, or timing. Florida buyers should be even more hyperlocal: some condo and insurance-sensitive markets have very different leverage than higher-end single-family or luxury pockets.