What happened
The latest housing data is sending buyers two messages at the same time: there is more negotiating room than a year ago, but that has not translated into a broad drop in home prices. Redfin reported that 21.1% of U.S. active listings had a price cut during the four weeks ending September 20, the highest September share in its records dating back to early 2022 [1]. That is a real shift from the ultra-tight pandemic-era market, when many sellers could count on multiple offers with minimal compromise.
At the same time, Redfin’s home-price index showed U.S. prices still rose 0.25% month over month in August and 3.7% year over year, the fastest annual growth rate in a year [2]. In other words, price cuts are becoming more common, but they are often coming off ambitious list prices rather than signaling a nationwide price correction.
NAR’s August existing-home sales report tells a similar story. Existing-home sales fell 2.0% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, while total inventory rose to 1.62 million units, or 4.9 months of supply [3]. Yet NAR also reported the median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier and marking the 38th straight month of year-over-year price increases [3].
Why this matters for borrowers
For mortgage shoppers, the key takeaway is that a softer listing environment does not automatically mean homes are cheaper. A price reduction may simply bring a property closer to market value. The bigger borrower opportunity is often in the full structure of the deal: purchase price, seller credits, repairs, closing-cost assistance, rate buydown options, inspection terms, and timing.
That matters because affordability is still being squeezed from several directions. NAR reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67% in August, up from July and slightly above a year earlier [3]. Redfin’s September price-cut report also pointed to mortgage rates sitting above 7% as one reason homes are lingering and sellers have to be more realistic [1]. Zillow’s September forecast said high mortgage rates are expected to keep existing-home sales under pressure into the fourth quarter, even as more inventory and more price cuts give buyers more options [5].
For borrowers, this is a planning market. A buyer who only watches the headline sale price may miss a better total-cost opportunity. A seller concession toward closing costs, prepaid taxes, a temporary buydown, or repairs can sometimes improve cash-to-close or early payment comfort more than a small list-price reduction. Program guidelines vary, and concessions have limits depending on loan type and down payment, so borrowers should review scenarios before writing an offer.
Western New York: more listings, but still competitive
The Buffalo-area market is not behaving exactly like the national market. The Buffalo Niagara Association of REALTORS’ August 2026 market package showed new listings up 8.4% year over year and inventory up 20.0%, which is meaningful relief for buyers who have been shopping in a very tight market [4]. But the same report showed the median sales price rose 4.2% year over year to $300,000, days on market fell to 17, and the average percent of list price received increased to 106.6% [4].
That combination is important: Western New York buyers may have more homes to tour, but well-priced properties can still move quickly and still sell over list. Compared with higher-cost coastal markets, Buffalo remains relatively more affordable, but the local affordability index in the BNAR report fell 4.9% year over year in August [4]. For first-time buyers in Erie and Niagara counties, that means payment planning is still the starting point—not just finding a lower asking price.
This is where pre-approval strategy matters. In a market where some listings are stale and others are still competitive, borrowers should understand their comfortable payment range, cash-to-close range, and how different taxes, insurance quotes, and seller credits affect the final numbers. A strong pre-approval does not guarantee an accepted offer, but it can help a buyer act quickly when the right house is realistically priced.
Florida: more room in some markets, but not uniform
Florida remains mixed. Redfin’s September price-cut data showed price reductions were relatively low in Miami at 13.7% and Fort Lauderdale at 16.4%, but higher in Orlando at 20.9% and Tampa at 23.4% [1]. Redfin also noted that affluent buyers in Florida’s luxury segment were one factor helping keep national prices afloat [2].
For borrowers considering a move, second home, or relocation between New York and Florida, this means local market selection matters. A condo, single-family home, and luxury property can each behave differently, even within the same metro. Insurance costs, HOA dues, reserves, taxes, and property condition can also change the monthly affordability picture significantly.
What this means for borrowers right now
Borrowers should treat today’s market as more negotiable, not automatically cheaper. Nationally, more sellers are cutting prices and inventory is improving, but home prices are still rising year over year [1][2][3]. In Western New York, the August data shows more supply, yet prices, speed, and sale-to-list ratios still point to competition for desirable homes [4]. The best move is to get payment scenarios reviewed early, compare the value of seller credits versus price reductions, and be ready to negotiate based on property condition, days on market, and local demand—not national headlines alone.